Computer analysis of effects of altering jet fuel properties on refinery costs and yields

This study was undertaken to evaluate the adequacy of future U.S. jet fuel supplies, the potential for large increases in the cost of jet fuel, and to what extent a relaxation in jet fuel properties would remedy these potential problems. The results of the study indicate that refiners should be able to meet jet fuel output requirements in all regions of the country within the current Jet A specifications during the 1990-2010 period. The results also indicate that it will be more difficult to meet Jet A specifications on the West Coast, because the feedstock quality is worse and the required jet fuel yield (jet fuel/crude refined) is higher than in the East. The results show that jet fuel production costs could be reduced by relaxing fuel properties. Potential cost savings in the East (PADDs I-IV) through property relaxation were found to be about 1.3 cents/liter (5 cents/gallon) in January 1, 1981 dollars between 1990 and 2010. However, the savings from property relaxation were all obtained within the range of current Jet A specifications, so there is no financial incentive to relax Jet A fuel specifications in the East. In the West (PADD V) the potential cost savings from lowering fuel quality were considerably greater than in the East. Cost savings from 2.7 to 3.7 cents/liter (10-14 cents/gallon) were found. In contrast to the East, on the West Coast a significant part of the savings was obtained through relaxation of the current Jet A fuel specifications.