The Influence of Synoptic Scales on Low-frequency Modes of Variability

Model analysis and predictablity studies using an equivalent barotropic empirical orthogonal function (EOF) model described in Schubert (1984b) are dicussed. An extensive set of 10-day forecasts was produced for the 12 component version of the model. Comparisons with observed data show apparently useful forecasts for individual winters. However, when averaged over 10 winters, the improvement over persistence was marginal and only one of the EOF's (resembling North Atlantic blocking) showed a statistically significant improvement. These results suggest the need for a more realistic model which includes shorter time scale baroclinic processes and spatial modes capable of efficiently representing the characteristic structures associated with baroclinic instability.