An improved thermal model for cometary nuclei

A thermal model for cometary nuclei is presented and used in comparisons of predictions with data on Halley's comet. The model considers the surface boundary conditions and heat diffusion equations, the sublimation rate of ice, the energy balance, and the dust production rate. Projections were made for the Halley nucleus over 18 latitudes from -85 to +85 deg, from 185 d before to 110 d after perihelion, and in 20 layers of its surface in 1.3 cm increments. Sublimation is predicted to increase by a factor of 2.2 every orbit, thereby allowing 320 returns for a nucleus with a coma, 710 returns with a bare ice nucleus. The gas production during the Giotto intercept at 0.9 AU will be 4.4 x 10 to the 29th molecules/sec, close to an estimate made during the 1910 return.