MERIT - A new approach to upper air forecasting for aviation

The development of a man/computer data enhancement and management system to provide very-short range upper air forecasts is examined. The forecast accuracy and precision problems encountered with the current numerical weather prediction models are discussed. The proposed system is to utilize both radiosonde data and automated pilot reports and provide a 2-12 hour analysis/forecast with a 3 hour forecast cycle. The minimum energy routes using interactive techniques (MERIT) system is described and a diagram is povided. The preliminary testing of a modified MERIT system reveals that the system is not as accurate as the Spectral 12 hour forecast, but is more accurate than the spectral 24 hour forecast. The coplete testing and validation of the MERIT system is required before a comparison with present techniques is possible.