Potential directions for a second generation Space Shuttle

This paper reports on trends and potentials for advanced rocket vehicles which may be candidates for eventual phased replacement of the Shuttle. Although such a replacement need is not foreseen until 2002 at the earliest, due to the long time to develop a new vehicle its definition has already begun. The paper discusses the role of such a "Shuttle II' in the architecture of launch vehicles likely to exist in the post-2000 era, leading to its designation as a smaller, primarily passenger-carrying vehicle to complement large, unmanned cargo launch vehicles. While a two-stage glide-back fully reusable configuration is optimum for near-term technology, a single-stage-to-orbit reusable glide-back configuration is optimum for farther-term technology advances. For advanced technology which could be available in the mid-90s, such vehicle could orbit a payload weight equal to their own dry weight - a factor of 10 better than current launch vehicles.