The Valec fireball and predicted meteorite fall

A fireball was photographed with a luminous trajectory below a height of 20 km. On Aug. 3, 1984, seven stations photographed this slow moving fireball, which traversed 94 km of luminous trajectory in 9.2 sec and terminated its visible flight at a height of 19.1 km. The computed dark flight trajectory intersected the surface close to Valec, a small village 40 km west of Brno. The Valec fireball was the lowest photographed fireball ever. The Valec fireball was photographed by fish eye cameras. The positional precision of all the records were within the range of 1 to 2 minutes of arc. All computations were done using the FIRBAL program, a set of almost 4000 Fortran statements run on EC 1040 computer. The average computed mass at the terminal point, i.e., the predicted mass of the biggest meteorite, was 16 kg. This number is based on the dynamical data at the terminal point solely. Visual data was also collected from occasional observers. This observed phenomenon is discussed.