Magnetic reversal spurts: Rain gauges for comet showers

Abrupt increases in the rate of magnetic reversals (magnetic reversal spurts) were first studied by many others. They hypothesized that spurts result from increased turbulence in the earth's core dynamo during episodes of intense bolide bombardment of the earth. Mechanisms for creating episodes of intense bombardment of the earth involve gravitational perturbation of the Oort cloud of comets, either by a hidden planet, a solar companion, or massive matter in the galactic plane. Herein, the time variation in reversal rate is analyzed using methods of statistical density estimation. A smooth, continuous estimate of reversal rate is obtained using an adaptive kernel method, in which the kernel width is adjusted as a function of reversal rate. The estimates near the ends of the data series (at 165 my ago and the present) are obtained by extending the data by reflection. The results show that the reversal spurts are not associated demonstrably with extinctions or well-dated impacts. If the spurts do record episodes of intense bombardment of the earth, then the mass extinctions do not, in general, occur at times of impacts. Furthermore, the large impact craters seen are not obviously related to the spurts, suggesting that the craters may have been caused by bolides of a different nature and with a different temporal pattern. However, the most simple explanation seems to be that the spurts do not record comet showers, either because the recording mechanism suggested by Muller and Morris is not effective or because comet showers are not triggered in the ways considered by Hut et al.