Impact as a general cause of extinction: A feasibility test

Large body impact has been implicated as the possible cause of several extinction events. This is entirely plausible if one accepts two propositions: (1) that impacts of large comets and asteroids produce environmental effects severe enough to cause significant species extinctions and (2) that the estimates of comet and asteroid flux for the Phanerozoic are approximately correct. A resonable next step is to investigate the possibility that impact could be a significant factor in the broader Phanerozoic extinction record, not limited merely to a few events of mass extinction. Monte Carlo simulation experiments based on existing flux estimates and reasonable predictions of the relationship between bolide diameter and extinction are discussed. The simulation results raise the serious possibility that large body impact may be a more pervasive factor in extinction than has been assumed heretofore. At the very least, the experiments show that the comet and asteroid flux estimates combined with a reasonable kill curve produces a reasonable extinction record, complete with occasional mass extinctions and the irregular, lower intensity extinctions commonly called background extinction.