The cometary and asteroidal impactor flux at the earth

The cratering records on the Earth and the lunar maria provide upper limits on the total impactor flux at the Earth's orbit over the past 600 Myr and the past 3.3 Gyr, respectively. These limits can be compared with estimates of the expected cratering rate from observed comets and asteroids in Earth-crossing orbits, corrected for observational selection effects and incompleteness, and including expected temporal variations in the impactor flux. Both estimates can also be used to calculate the probability of large impacts which may result in biological extinction events on the Earth. The estimated cratering rate on the Earth for craters greater than 10 km-diameter, based on counted craters on dated surfaces is 2.2 + or - 1.1 x 10 to the minus 14th power km(-2) yr(-1) (Shoemaker et al., 1979). Using a revised mass distribution for cometary nuclei based on the results of the spacecraft flybys of Comet Halley in 1986, and other refinements in the estimate of the cometary flux in the terrestrial planets zone, it is now estimated that long-period comets account for 11 percent of the cratering on the Earth (scaled to the estimate above), and short-period comets account for 4 pct (Weissman, 1987). However, the greatest contribution is from large but infrequent, random cometary showers, accounting for 22 pct of the terrestrial cratering.