Prediction and causal reasoning in planning

Nonlinear planners are often touted as having an efficiency advantage over linear planners. The reason usually given is that nonlinear planners, unlike their linear counterparts, are not forced to make arbitrary commitments to the order in which actions are to be performed. This ability to delay commitment enables nonlinear planners to solve certain problems with far less effort than would be required of linear planners. Here, it is argued that this advantage is bought with a significant reduction in the ability of a nonlinear planner to accurately predict the consequences of actions. Unfortunately, the general problem of predicting the consequences of a partially ordered set of actions is intractable. In gaining the predictive power of linear planners, nonlinear planners sacrifice their efficiency advantage. There are, however, other advantages to nonlinear planning (e.g., the ability to reason about partial orders and incomplete information) that make it well worth the effort needed to extend nonlinear methods. A framework is supplied for causal inference that supports reasoning about partially ordered events and actions whose effects depend upon the context in which they are executed. As an alternative to a complete but potentially exponential-time algorithm, researchers provide a provably sound polynomial-time algorithm for predicting the consequences of partially ordered events.