A simple model for DSS-14 outage times

A model is proposed to describe DSS-14 outage times. Discrepancy Reporting System outage data for the period from January 1986 through September 1988 are used to estimate the parameters of the model. The model provides a probability distribution for the duration of outages, which agrees well with observed data. The model depends only on a small number of parameters, and has some heuristic justification. This shows that the Discrepancy Reporting System in the Deep Space Network (DSN) can be used to estimate the probability of extended outages in spite of the discrepancy reports ending when the pass ends. The probability of an outage extending beyond the end of a pass is estimated as around 5 percent.