The relationship of marine stratus to synoptic conditions

The marine stratus which persistently covered most of the eastern Pacific Ocean, had large clear areas during the FIRE Intensive Field Operations (IFO) in 1987. Clear zones formed inside the large oceanic cloud mass on almost every day during the IFO. The location and size of the clear zones varied from day to day implying that they were related to dynamic weather conditions and not to oceanic conditions. Forecasting of cloud cover for aircraft operations during the IFO was directed towards predicting when and where the clear and broken zones would form inside the large marine stratus cloud mass. The clear zones often formed to the northwest of the operations area and moved towards it. However, on some days the clear zones appeared to form during the day in the operations area as part of the diurnal cloud burn off. The movement of the clear zones from day to day were hard to follow because of the large diurnal changes in cloud cover. Clear and broken cloud zones formed during the day only to distort in shape and fill during the following night. The field forecasters exhibited some skill in predicting when the clear and broken cloud patterns would form in the operations area. They based their predictions on the analysis and simulations of the models run by NOAA's Numeric Meteorological Center. How the atmospheric conditions analyzed by one NOAA/NMC model related to the cloud cover is discussed.