How well can regional fluxes be derived from smaller-scale estimates?

Regional surface fluxes are essential lower boundary conditions for large scale numerical weather and climate models and are the elements of global budgets of important trace gases. Surface properties affecting the exchange of heat, moisture, momentum and trace gases vary with length scales from one meter to hundreds of km. A classical difficulty is that fluxes have been measured directly only at points or along lines. The process of scaling up observations limited in space and/or time to represent larger areas was done by assigning properties to surface classes and combining estimated or calculated fluxes using an area weighted average. It is not clear that a simple area weighted average is sufficient to produce the large scale from the small scale, chiefly due to the effect of internal boundary layers, nor is it known how important the uncertainty is to large scale model outcomes. Simultaneous aircraft and tower data obtained in the relatively simple terrain of the western Alaska tundra were used to determine the extent to which surface type variation can be related to fluxes of heat, moisture, and other properties. Surface type was classified as lake or land with aircraft borne infrared thermometer, and flight level heat and moisture fluxes were related to surface type. The magnitude and variety of sampling errors inherent in eddy correlation flux estimation place limits on how well any flux can be known even in simple geometries.