The Assessment of Long-Term Orbital Debris Models

This paper presents the results of on-going research being conducted for the U. S. Air Force Phillips Laboratory by ORION International Technologies, Inc. The purpose of this research is to assess existing long-term orbital debris models as a first step in the Air Force's effort to develop an Air Force long-term orbital debris modeling capability. Existing models are assessed against Air Force requirements for a long-term orbital debris model which can; (a) operate with the necessary accuracy at the relevant altitudes and orbital parameters, (b) benefit from new Air Force and non-Air Force debris measurements, and (c) accommodate current and future Air Force space scenarios. Model assessment results are shown for the NASA engineering model. The status of the NASA EVOLVE model assessment is discussed.