Future aircraft and potential effects on stratospheric ozone and climate

Initial studies with LLNL models of global atmospheric chemical, radiative, and transport processes have indicated that substantial decreases in stratospheric ozone concentrations could result from emissions of NO(x) from aircraft flying in the stratosphere, depending on fleet size and magnitude of the engine emissions. These studies used homogeneous chemical reaction rates (e.g., gas-phase chemistry). Recent evidence indicates that reactions on particles in the stratosphere may be important. Heterogeneous chemical reactions convert NO(x) (NO and NO2) molecules to HNO3. This decreases the odd oxygen loss from the NO(x) catalytic cycle and increases the odd oxygen loss from the Cl(x) catalytic cycle. By including these heterogeneous reactions in the LLNL model, the relative partitioning of odd oxygen loss between these two families changes, with the result that emissions of NO(x) from proposed aircraft fleets flying in the stratosphere now increase ozone. Having these heterogeneous processes present also increases ozone concentration in the troposphere relative to gas-phase only chemistry calculations for emissions of NO(x) from subsonic aircraft.