Venusian hydrology: Steady state reconsidered

In 1987, Grinspoon proposed that the data on hydrogen abundance, isotopic composition, and escape rate were consistent with the hypothesis that water on Venus might be in steady state rather than monotonic decline since the dawn of time. This conclusion was partially based on a derived water lifetime against nonthermal escape of approximately 10(exp 8) yr. De Bergh et al., preferring the earlier Pioneer Venus value of 200 ppm water to the significantly lower value detected by Bezard et al., found H2O lifetimes of greater than 10(exp 9) yr. Donahue and Hodges derived H2O lifetimes of 0.4-5 x 10 (exp 9) yr. Both these analyses used estimates of H escape flux between 0.4 x 10(exp 7) and 1 x 10(exp 7) cm(exp -2)s(exp -1) from Rodriguez et al. Yet in more recent Monte Carlo modeling, Hodges and Tinsley found an escape flux due to charge exchange with hot H(+) of 2.8 x 10(exp 7) cm(exp -2)s(exp -1). McElroy et al. estimated an escape flux of 8 x 10(exp 6) cm(exp -2)s(exp -1) from collisions with hot O produced by dissociative recombination of O2(+). Brace et al. estimated an escape flux of 5 x 10(exp 6) cm(exp -2)s(exp -1) from ion escape from the ionotail of Venus. The combined estimated escape flux from all these processes is approximately 4 x 10(exp 7) cm(exp -2)s(exp -1). The most sophisticated analysis to date of near-IR radiation from Venus' nightside reveals a water mixing ratio of approximately 30 ppm, suggesting a lifetime against escape for water of less than 10(exp 8) yr. Large uncertainties remain in these quantities, yet the data point toward a steady state. Further evaluation of these uncertainties, and new evolutionary modeling incorporating estimates of the outgassing rate from post-Magellan estimates of the volcanic resurfacing rate are presented.