Modeling of asteroidal dust production rates

The production rate of dust associated with the prominent Hirayama asteroid families and the background asteroidal population are modeled with the intent of using the families as a calibrator of mainbelt dust production. However, the dust production rates of asteroid families may be highly stochastic; there is probably more than an order of magnitude variation in the total area of dust associated with a family. Over 4.5 x 10(exp 9) years of collisional evolution, the volume (mass) of a family is ground down by an order of magnitude, suggesting a similar loss from the entire mainbelt population. Our collisional models show that the number of meteoroids deliverable to Earth also varies stochastically, but only by a factor of 2 to 3.