The flux of small asteroids near the Earth

Fifteen new EA's (Earth approachers) have been discovered since September, among them the smallest asteroids on record: 1990 UN, 1991 BA, and 1991 JR, which are in the 10 to 100 m size range (Scotti et al. 1991b). For the first time, we can make estimates of the fluxes near the Earth of these small objects, thought to be the immediate parents of meteorites, from direct observation. In this paper, I show that for EA's larger than a few 100 m, the magnitude-frequency dependence we observe is consistent with the cumulative magnitude-frequency relation, m(H), established for the main belt asteroids. Assuming this relation extends to smaller sizes, however, the probability for discovering both 1990 UN and 1991 JR was 15 percent, and for discovering 1991 BA only 1 percent. Objects smaller than approx. 100 m are therefore increasingly overabundant compared to an extrapolation from larger objects, with the excess increasing with decreasing size. Near 10 m, the most probable flux near the Earth is two orders of magnitude higher. This is in agreement with the flux extrapolated from observations of bright meteors and fireballs. It is thus likely that processes other than collisional breakup of asteroidal material begin to supply the population of small objects near the Earth at sizes near 100 m. Tantalizing clues from spectral measurements and orbital associations suggest that these objects may be the debris from extinct, short-period comets.