Shuttle landing facility cloud cover study: Climatological analysis and two tenths cloud cover rule evaluation

The two-tenths cloud cover rule in effect for all End Of Mission (EOM) STS landings at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) states: 'for scattered cloud layers below 10,000 feet, cloud cover must be observed to be less than or equal to 0.2 at the de-orbit burn go/no-go decision time (approximately 90 minutes before landing time)'. This rule was designed to protect against a ceiling (below 10,000 feet) developing unexpectedly within the next 90 minutes (i.e., after the de-orbit burn decision and before landing). The Applied Meteorological Unit (AMU) developed and analyzed a database of cloud cover amounts and weather conditions at the Shuttle Landing Facility for a five-year (1986-1990) period. The data indicate the best time to land the shuttle at KSC is during the summer while the worst time is during the winter. The analysis also shows the highest frequency of landing opportunities occurs for the 0100-0600 UTC and 1300-1600 UTC time periods. The worst time of the day to land a shuttle is near sunrise and during the afternoon. An evaluation of the two-tenths cloud cover rule for most data categorizations has shown that there is a significant difference in the proportions of weather violations one and two hours subsequent to initial conditions of 0.2 and 0.3 cloud cover. However, for May, Oct., 700 mb northerly wind category, 1500 UTC category, and 1600 UTC category there is some evidence that the 0.2 cloud cover rule may be overly conservative. This possibility requires further investigation. As a result of these analyses, the AMU developed nomograms to help the Spaceflight Meteorological Group (SMG) and the Cape Canaveral Forecast Facility (CCFF) forecast cloud cover for EOM and Return to Launch Site (RTLS) at KSC. Future work will include updating the two tenths database, further analysis of the data for several categorizations, and developing a proof of concept artificial neural network to provide forecast guidance of weather constraint violations for shuttle landings.