Space transportation vehicle design evaluation using saturated designs

An important objective in the preliminary design and evaluation of space transportation vehicles is to find the best values of design variables that optimize the performance characteristic (e.g. dry weight). For a given configuration, the vehicle performance can be determined by the use of complex sizing and performance evaluation computer programs. These complex computer programs utilize iterative algorithms and they are generally too expensive and/or difficult to use directly in multidisciplinary design optimization. An alternative is to use response surface methodology (RSM) and obtain quadratic polynomial approximations to the functional relationships between performance characteristics and design variables. In RSM, these approximation models are then used to determine optimum design parameter values and for rapid sensitivity studies. Constructing a second-order model requires that 'n' design parameters be studied at least at 3 levels (values) so that the coefficients in the model can be estimated. There, 3(n) factorial experiments (point designs or observations) may be necessary. For small values of 'n' such as two or three, this design works well. However, when a large number of design parameters are under study, the number of design points required for a full-factorial design may become excessive. Fortunately, these quadratic polynomial approximations can be obtained by selecting an efficient design matrix using central composite designs (CCD) from design of experiments theory. Each unique point design from the CCD matrix is then conducted using computerized analysis tools (e.g. POST, CONSIZ, etc.). In the next step, least squares regression analysis is used to calculate the quadratic polynomial coefficients from the data. However, in some multidisciplinary applications involving a large number of design variables and several disciplines, the computerized performance synthesis programs may get too time consuming and expensive to run even with the use of efficient central composite designs. In such cases, it may be preferable to keep the number of design points to an absolute minimum and trade some model accuracy with cost. For this purpose, another class of experimental designs, called saturated D-optimal designs may be utilized for generating a matrix of vehicle designs. A design is called saturated when the number of design points is exactly equal to the number of terms in the model to be fitted. As a result, saturated designs require the absolute minimum number of design points ((n+1)(n+2)/s) to estimate the quadratic polynomial model coefficients. Saturated designs can be generated using the D-optimality criterion. A good saturated design should give rise to least squares estimates with minimum generalized variance.