The effect of polar caps on obliquity

Rubincam has shown that the Martian obliquity is dependent on the seasonal polar caps. In particular, Rubincam analytically derived this dependence and showed that the change in obliquity is directly proportional to the seasonal polar cap mass. Rubincam concludes that seasonal friction does not appear to have changed Mars' climate significantly. Using a computer model for the evolution of the Martian atmosphere, Haberle et al. have made a convincing case for the possibility of huge polar caps, about 10 times the mass of the current polar caps, that exist for a significant fraction of the planet's history. Since Rubincam showed that the effect of seasonal friction on obliquity is directly proportional to polar cap mass, a scenario with a ten-fold increase in polar cap mass over a significant fraction of the planet's history would result in a secular increase in Mars' obliquity of perhaps 10 degrees. Hence, the Rubincam conclusion of an insignificant contribution to Mars' climate by seasonal friction may be incorrect. Furthermore, if seasonal friction is an important consideration in the obliquity of Mars, this would significantly alter the predictions of past obliquity.