Modeling ozone episodes in the Baltimore-Washington region

Surface ozone (O3) concentrations in excess of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) continue to occur in metropolitan areas in the United States despite efforts to control emissions of O3 precursors. Future O3 control strategies will be based on results from modeling efforts that have just begun in many areas. Two initial questions that arise are model sensitivity to domain-specific conditions and the selection of episodes for model evaluation and control strategy development. For the Baltimore-Washington region (B-W), the presence of the Chesapeake Bay introduces a number of issues relevant to model sensitivity. In this paper, the specific questions of the determination of model volume (mixing height) for the Urban Airshed Model (UAM) is discussed and various alternative methods compared. For the latter question, several analytic approaches, Cluster Analysis and classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis are undertaken to determine meteorological conditions associated with severe O3 events in the B-W domain.