Transport into the troposphere in a tropopause fold/cut-off low system

A tropopause fold developed on the western flank of a trough in the 300 mb flow on 6 Oct. 1990. Radiosonde ascents over western Europe showed very dry stable layers beneath the jet stream in the potential temperature range 310 to 315 K. These were evident on profiles from 12h on 6 Oct. to 00h on 8 Oct. ECMWF model assimilations were examined for this period to determine how well the model represented the radiosonde observations. Humidity fields were found to give better agreement than potential vorticity, probably because the PV is affected by the limited vertical resolution of the model. Isentropic trajectories were calculated for the air in the fold as represented by the ECMWF assimilation at 00h on 7 Oct. Those on the western edge of the fold split from the main flow and transferred to the troposphere, while those on the eastern side ended up in the cut-off low. A lower bound of 1.1 x 10(exp 14) kg is estimated for the amount of stratospheric air transferred into the troposphere by this fold.