Lightning forecasting studies using LDAR, LLP, field mill, surface mesonet, and Doppler radar data

The ultimate goal of this research is to develop rules, algorithms, display software, and training materials that can be used by the operational forecasters who issue weather advisories for daily ground operations and launches by NASA and the United States Air Force to improve real-time forecasts of lightning. Doppler radar, Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR), Lightning Location and Protection (LLP), field mill (Launch Pad Lightning Warning System -- LPLWS), wind tower (surface mesonet) and additional data sets have been utilized in 10 case studies of thunderstorms in the vicinity of KSC during the summers of 1994 and 1995. These case studies reveal many intriguing aspects of cloud-to-ground, cloud-to-cloud, in-cloud, and cloud-to-air lightning discharges in relation to radar thunderstorm structure and evolution. They also enable the formulation of some preliminary working rules of potential use in the forecasting of initial and final ground strike threat. In addition, LDAR and LLP data sets from 1993 have been used to quantify the lightning threat relative to the center and edges of LDAR discharge patterns. Software has been written to overlay and display the various data sets as color imagery. However, human intervention is required to configure the data sets for proper intercomparison. Future efforts will involve additional software development to automate the data set intercomparisons, to display multiple overlay combinations in a windows format, and to allow for animation of the imagery. The software package will then be used as a tool to examine more fully the current cases and to explore additional cases in a timely manner. This will enable the formulation of more general and reliable forecasting guidelines and rules.