Technology Directions for the 21st Century

New technologies will unleash the huge capacity of fiber-optic cable to meet growing demands for bandwidth. Companies will continue to replace private networks with public network bandwidth-on-demand. Although asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) is the transmission technology favored by many, its penetration will be slower than anticipated. Hybrid networks - e.g., a mix of ATM, frame relay, and fast Ethernet - may predominate, both as interim and long-term solutions, based on factors such as availability, interoperability, and cost. Telecommunications equipment and services prices will decrease further due to increased supply and more competition. Explosive Internet growth will continue, requiring additional backbone transmission capacity and enhanced protocols, but it is not clear who will fund the upgrade. Within ten years, space-based constellations of satellites in Low Earth orbit (LEO) will serve mobile users employing small, low-power terminals. 'Little LEO's' will provide packet transmission services and geo-position determination. 'Big LEO's' will function as global cellular telephone networks, with some planning to offer video and interactive multimedia services. Geosynchronous satellites also are proposed for mobile voice grade links and high-bandwidth services. NASA may benefit from resulting cost reductions in components, space hardware, launch services, and telecommunications services.