Shoemaker-Levy 9 and Plume-Forming Collisions on Earth

Computational models for the July, 1994 collision of comet Shoemaker Levy 9 with Jupiter have provided a framework for interpreting the observational data. Imaging, photometry, and spectroscopy data from ground-based, Hubble Space Telescope, and Galileo spacecraft instruments are consistent with phenomena that were dominated by the generation of incandescent fireballs that were ballistically ejected to high altitudes, where they formed plumes that subsequently collapsed over large areas of Jupiter's atmosphere. Applications of similar computational models to collisions into Earth's atmosphere show that a very similar sequence of events should take place for NEO impacts with energies as low as 3 megatons, recurring on 100 year timescales or less. This result suggests that the 1908 Tunguska event was a plume-forming atmospheric explosion, and that some of the phenomena associated with it might be related to the ejection and collapse of a high plume. Hazards associated with plume growth and collapse should be included in the evaluation of the impact threat to Earth, and opportunities should be sought for observational validation of atmospheric impact models by exploiting data already being collected from the natural flux of multikiloton to megaton sized objects that constantly enter Earth's atmosphere on annual to decadal timescales.