Analytical Modeling of Pressure Wall Hole Size and Maximum Tip-to-Tip Crack Length for Perforating Normal and Oblique Orbital Debris Impacts

This report presents the results of a study whose objective was to develop first-principles-based models of hole size and maximum tip-to-tip crack length for a spacecraft module pressure wall that has been perforated in an orbital debris particle impact. The hole size and crack length models are developed by sequentially characterizing the phenomena comprising the orbital debris impact event, including the initial impact, the creation and motion of a debris cloud within the dual-wall system, the impact of the debris cloud on the pressure wall, the deformation of the pressure wall due to debris cloud impact loading prior to crack formation, pressure wall crack initiation, propagation, and arrest, and finally pressure wall deformation following crack initiation and growth. The model development has been accomplished through the application of elementary shock physics and thermodynamic theory, as well as the principles of mass, momentum, and energy conservation. The predictions of the model developed herein are compared against the predictions of empirically-based equations for hole diameters and maximum tip-to-tip crack length for three International Space Station wall configurations. The ISS wall systems considered are the baseline U.S. Lab Cylinder, the enhanced U.S. Lab Cylinder, and the U.S. Lab Endcone. The empirical predictor equations were derived from experimentally obtained hole diameters and crack length data. The original model predictions did not compare favorably with the experimental data, especially for cases in which pressure wall petalling did not occur. Several modifications were made to the original model to bring its predictions closer in line with the experimental results. Following the adjustment of several empirical constants, the predictions of the modified analytical model were in much closer agreement with the experimental results.