A Petaflops Era Computing Analysis

This report covers a study of the potential for petaflops (1O(exp 15) floating point operations per second) computing. This study was performed within the year 1996 and should be considered as the first step in an on-going effort. 'Me analysis concludes that a petaflop system is technically feasible but not feasible with today's state-of-the-art. Since the computer arena is now a commodity business, most experts expect that a petaflops system will evolve from current technology in an evolutionary fashion. To meet the price expectations of users waiting for petaflop performance, great improvements in lowering component costs will be required. Lower power consumption is also a must. The present rate of progress in improved performance places the date of introduction of petaflop systems at about 2010. Several years before that date, it is projected that the resolution limit of chips will reach the now known resolution limit. Aside from the economic problems and constraints, software is identified as the major problem. The tone of this initial study is more pessimistic than most of the Super-published material available on petaflop systems. Workers in the field are expected to generate more data which could serve to provide a basis for a more informed projection. This report includes an annotated bibliography.