Prediction of Dynamical Impact of Changes in Stratospheric Ozone

Under this grant one paper by Lou et al and a second paper by Kindler et al is in journal. These papers both describe N2O simulations using UKMO and Goddard assimilated wind fields and comparisons of the results against CLAES N2O observations. The results of these studies indicate some of the difficulties of using the assimilated wind fields, and the vertical motions in particular, in simulating long term variations in trace gases in the stratosphere. On the other hand, qualitatively the results possess a number of features of the observations even on time scales longer than a month or two. More recently we have started to examine results obtained using NCAR models a 3D version of which also uses the UKMO assimilated wind fields. Calculations have already been made with their 2D model with emphasis on the seasonal cycle in ozone at high latitudes in the upper stratosphere. Simultaneously trends in stratospheric ozone have been studied in detail from SAGE and UARS observations. Moreover, observations of the trends since 1984 do not show a significant interhemispheric asymmetry in upper stratospheric ozone. Therefore any asymmetry in the trends must have occurred prior to the mid-eighties and would most likely have been related to interhemispheric differences in upper stratospheric temperature trends. Another activity has been to compile an ozone climatology from UARS and SAGE observations. This effort has been performed as part of a UARS team activity to assemble a climatology of all the UARS long-lived trace gases for 1992-1993.