Results of a 24-inch Hybrid Motor Performance Uncertainty Analysis

The subscale (11 and 24-inch) hybrid motors at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have been used as versatile and cost effective testbeds for developing new technology. Comparisons between motor configuration, ignition systems, feed systems, fuel formulations, and nozzle materials have been carried out without detailed consideration as to haw "good" the motor performance data were. For the 250,000 lb/thrust motor developed by the Hybrid Propulsion Demonstration Program consortium, this shortcoming is particularly risky because motor performance will likely be used as put of a set of downselect criteria to choose between competing ignition and feed systems under development. This analysis directly addresses that shortcoming by applying uncertainty analysis techniques to the experimental determination of the characteristic velocity, theoretical characteristic velocity, and characteristic velocity efficiency for a 24-inch motor firing. With the adoption of fuel-lined headends, flow restriction, and aft mixing chambers, state of the an 24-inch hybrid motors have become very efficient However, impossibly high combustion efficiencies (some computed as high as 108%) have been measured in some tests with 11-inch motors. This analysis has given new insight into explaining how these efficiencies were measured to be so high, and into which experimental measurements contribute the most to the overall uncertainty.