The Net Exchange Between Terrestrial Ecosystems and the Atmosphere as a Result of Changes in Land Use

The general purpose of this research was to improve and update (to 1990) estimates of the net flux of carbon between the world's terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere from changes in land use (e.g., deforestation and reforestation). The estimates are important for understanding the global carbon cycle, and for predicting future concentrations of atmospheric CO2 that will result from emissions. The emphasis of the first year's research was on the northern temperate zone and boreal forests, where the greatest discrepancy exists between estimates of flux. Forest inventories suggest net sinks of 0.6 PgC/yr; inversion analyses based on atmospheric data and models suggest much larger sinks 2-3.6 PgC/yr (e.g., Tans et al. 1990, Ciais et al. 1995). The work carried out with this grant calculated the flux attributable to changes in land use. The estimated flux was somewhat smaller than the flux calculated from inventory data suggesting that environmental changes have led to a small accumulation of carbon in forests that exceeds the accumulation expected from past rates of harvest. Two publications have described these results (Houghton 1996, 1998). The large difference between these estimates and those obtained with atmospheric data and models remains unexplained. The recent estimate of a 1.7 PgC/yr sink in North America, alone (Fan et al. 1998), is particularly difficult to explain. That part of the sink attributable to land-use change, however, is defined as a result of this grant.