AGN Populations, Evolution, and AXAF

A successful empirical description of quasar evolution - 'luminosity' vs. 'density' evolution - is at hand [see e.g. next talk by Hasinger], but the causes of this evolution are currently merely speculation. To develop a physical understanding of the cause of AGN evolution is the next challenge in AGN studies. To create this model -requires an initial mass function for quasar black holes and a the time dependence of their fuelling rate. We review some observational and theoretical paths by which these basic inputs can be constrained; and consider how AXAF and other future missions will make progress.