Uncertainties in Remote Sensing of Aerosol Radiative Forcing

The role of aerosol forcing remains one of the largest uncertainties in estimating man's impact on the global climate system. One school of thought suggests that remote sensing by satellite sensors will provide the data necessary to narrow these uncertainties. Much effort has gone into the development of new satellite sensors specifically designed to retrieve aerosol loading and some information about the sizes of the aerosols. These next generation remote sensing instruments (EOS-MODIS, EOS-MISR, POLDER, ATSR) will provide unprecedented accuracy in the retrieval of aerosol loading. Although the new generation of sensors has excellent accuracy compared to the heritage instruments of the past, they still have measurement limitations. In clean, pristine regions the absolute magnitude of the uncertainty in the aerosol retrieval becomes comparable in magnitude to the signal itself. If much of the aerosol forcing is occurring at very low magnitudes of aerosol concentrations, satellite remote sensing will miss it. This study attempts to quantify remote sensing limitations due to the accuracy limits of the retrieval algorithms. We use a combination of numerical aerosol transport models, ground-based AERONET data and ISCCP cloud climatology to determine how much of the forcing occurs in regions too clean to determine from satellite retrievals. This study is not an intercomparison of global transport models. It is not an estimation of global aerosol forcing. This study is an exercise to determine whether satellite remote sensing can live up to our high expectations.