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Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate ScenarioA common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.
Document ID
20000085956
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Preprint (Draft being sent to journal)
Authors
Hansen, James E.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Sato, Makiko
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Ruedy, Reto
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Lacis, Andrew
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Oinas, Valdar
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Date Acquired
September 7, 2013
Publication Date
January 1, 2000
Subject Category
Environment Pollution
Report/Patent Number
GCN-00-16
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.
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