Possible Ursid Outburst on December 22, 2000

The Ursid shower has broad Filament-type outbursts around the perihelion passage of parent 8P/Tuttle, but also isolated narrow outbursts at aphelion. We calculated Tuttle's dust trail encounters in the same way as for the Leonid showers. We discovered that it takes 6 centuries to change the orbit enough to bring the meteoroids to Earth's orbit. During that time, the meteoroids and comet separate in mean anomaly by 6 years, thus explaining the unusual aphelion occurrences. We predict enhanced activity on December 22, 2000, at around 7:29 LT.