Probabilistic Design of a Plate-Like Wing to Meet Flutter and Strength Requirements

An approach is presented for carrying out reliability-based design of a metallic, plate-like wing to meet strength and flutter requirements that are given in terms of risk/reliability. The design problem is to determine the thickness distribution such that wing weight is a minimum and the probability of failure is less than a specified value. Failure is assumed to occur if either the flutter speed is less than a specified allowable or the stress caused by a pressure loading is greater than a specified allowable. Four uncertain quantities are considered: wing thickness, calculated flutter speed, allowable stress, and magnitude of a uniform pressure load. The reliability-based design optimization approach described herein starts with a design obtained using conventional deterministic design optimization with margins on the allowables. Reliability is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation with response surfaces that provide values of stresses and flutter speed. During the reliability-based design optimization, the response surfaces and move limits are coordinated to ensure accuracy of the response surfaces. Studies carried out in the paper show the relationship between reliability and weight and indicate that, for the design problem considered, increases in reliability can be obtained with modest increases in weight.