Limits to Cloud Susceptibility

1-kilometer AVHRR observations of ship tracks in low-level clouds off the west coast of the U S. were used to determine limits for the degree to which clouds might be altered by increases in anthropogenic aerosols. Hundreds of tracks were analyzed to determine whether the changes in droplet radii, visible optical depths, and cloud top altitudes that result from the influx of particles from underlying ships were consistent with expectations based on simple models for the indirect effect of aerosols. The models predict substantial increases in sunlight reflected by polluted clouds due to the increases in droplet numbers and cloud liquid water that result from the elevated particle concentrations. Contrary to the model predictions, the analysis of ship tracks revealed a 15-20% reduction in liquid water for the polluted clouds. Studies performed with a large-eddy cloud simulation model suggested that the shortfall in cloud liquid water found in the satellite observations might be attributed to the restriction that the 1-kilometer pixels be completely covered by either polluted or unpolluted cloud. The simulation model revealed that a substantial fraction of the indirect effect is caused by a horizontal redistribution of cloud water in the polluted clouds. Cloud-free gaps in polluted clouds fill in with cloud water while the cloud-free gaps in the surrounding unpolluted clouds remain cloud-free. By limiting the analysis to only overcast pixels, the current study failed to account for the gap-filling predicted by the simulation model. This finding and an analysis of the spatial variability of marine stratus suggest new ways to analyze ship tracks to determine the limit to which particle pollution will alter the amount of sunlight reflected by clouds.