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Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle DesignA comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.
Document ID
20040016143
Acquisition Source
Langley Research Center
Document Type
Other
Authors
Unal, Resit
(Old Dominion Univ. Norfolk, VA, United States)
Keating, Charles
(Old Dominion Univ. Norfolk, VA, United States)
Conway, Bruce
(Old Dominion Univ. Norfolk, VA, United States)
Chytka, Trina
(Old Dominion Univ. Norfolk, VA, United States)
Date Acquired
September 7, 2013
Publication Date
January 1, 2004
Subject Category
Spacecraft Design, Testing And Performance
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NCC1-02044
PROJECT: ODU Proj. 130012
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.
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