Mesosphere-Stratosphere Coupling: Implications for Climate Variability and Trends

A key aspect of this project is the establishment of a causal link from circulation anomalies in the lower mesosphere and stratopause region downward through the stratosphere to the troposphere. The observational link for stratospheric sudden warmings and surface climate is fairly clear. However, our understanding of the dynamics is incomplete. We have been making significant progress in the area of dynamical mechanisms by which circulation anomalies in the stratosphere affect the troposphere. We are trying to understand the details and sequence of events that occur when a middle atmosphere (wind) anomaly propagates downward to near the tropopause. The wind anomaly could be caused by a warming or solar variations in the low-latitude stratopause region, or could have other causes. The observations show a picture that is consistent with a circulation anomaly that descends to the tropopause region, and can be detected as low as the mid-troposphere. Processes near the stratopause in the tropics appear to be important precursors to the wintertime development of the northern polar vortex. This may affect significantly our understanding of the process by which low-latitude wind anomalies in the low mesosphere and upper stratosphere evolve through the winter and affect the polar vortex.