Supporting the Future Air Traffic Control Projection Process

In air traffic control, projecting what the air traffic situation will be over the next 30 seconds to 30 minutes is a key process in identifying conflicts that may arise so that evasive action can be taken upon discovery of these conflicts. A series of field visits in the Boston and New York terminal radar approach control (TRACON) facilities and in the oceanic air traffic control facilities in New York and Reykjavik, Iceland were conducted to investigate the projection process in two different ATC domains. The results from the site visits suggest that two types of projection are currently used in ATC tasks, depending on the type of separation minima and/or traffic restriction and information display used by the controller. As technologies improve and procedures change, care should be taken by designers to support projection through displays, automation, and procedures. It is critical to prevent time/space mismatches between interfaces and restrictions. Existing structure in traffic dynamics could be utilized to provide controllers with useful behavioral models on which to build projections. Subtle structure that the controllers are unable to internalize could be incorporated into an ATC projection aid.