Testing Spatial Correlation of Subduction Interplate Coupling and Forearc Morpho-Tectonics

Subduction zones that are capable of generating great (Mw greater than 8) earthquakes appear to have a common assemblage of forearc morphologic elements. Although details vary, each have (from the trench landward), an accretionary prism, outer arc high, outer forearc basin, an inner forean: basin, and volcanic arc. This pattern is common in spite of great variation in forearc architecture. Because interseismic strain is known to be associated with a locked seismogenic plate interface, we infer that this common forearc morphology is related, in an unknown way, to the process of interseismic Strain accumulation and release in great earthquakes. To date, however, no clear relationship between the subduction process and the common elements of upper plate form has emerged. Whereas certain elements of the system, i.e. the outer arc high, are reasonably well- understood in a structural context, there is little understanding of the structural or topographic evolution of the other key elements like the inner arc and inner forearc basin, particularly with respect to the coupled zone of earthquake generation. This project developed a model of the seismologic, topographic, and uplift/denudation linkages between forearc topography and the subduction system by: 1) comparing geophysical, geodetic, and topographic data from subduction margins that generate large earthquakes; 2) using existing GPS, seismicity, and other data to model the relationship between seismic cycles involving a locked interface and upper-plate topographic development; and 3) using new GPS data and a range-scale topographic, uplift, and denudation analysis of the presently aseismic Cascadia margin to constrain topographic/plate coupling relationships at this poorly understood margin.