Continued Research into Characterizing the Preturbulence Environment for Sensor Development, New Hazard Algorithms and Experimental Flight Planning

The purpose of the research was to develop and test improved hazard algorithms that could result in the development of sensors that are better able to anticipate potentially severe atmospheric turbulence, which affects aircraft safety. The research focused on employing numerical simulation models to develop improved algorithms for the prediction of aviation turbulence. This involved producing both research simulations and real-time simulations of environments predisposed to moderate and severe aviation turbulence. The research resulted in the following fundamental advancements toward the aforementioned goal: 1) very high resolution simulations of turbulent environments indicated how predictive hazard indices could be improved resulting in a candidate hazard index that indicated the potential for improvement over existing operational indices, 2) a real-time turbulence hazard numerical modeling system was improved by correcting deficiencies in its simulation of moist convection and 3) the same real-time predictive system was tested by running the code twice daily and the hazard prediction indices updated and improved. Additionally, a simple validation study was undertaken to determine how well a real time hazard predictive index performed when compared to commercial pilot observations of aviation turbulence. Simple statistical analyses were performed in this validation study indicating potential skill in employing the hazard prediction index to predict regions of varying intensities of aviation turbulence. Data sets from a research numerical model where provided to NASA for use in a large eddy simulation numerical model. A NASA contractor report and several refereed journal articles where prepared and submitted for publication during the course of this research.