Design Tool Developed for Probabilistic Modeling of Ceramic Matrix Composite Strength

Ceramic matrix composites are being evaluated as candidate materials for many high temperature applications such as engine combustor liners for the High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT). They are required to have an assured life of several thousand hours. Estimating the reliability of these components is quite a complex process and requires knowledge of the uncertainties that occur at various scales. The properties of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are known to display a considerable amount of scatter due to variations in fiber/matrix properties, interphase/coating properties, bonding, amount of matrix voids, and many geometry- and fabrication-related parameters such as ply thickness and ply orientations. The objective of this research effort is to account for these uncertainties in a formal way by probabilistically analyzing both the stiffness- and strength related properties of CMC's. In current deterministic approaches, uncertainties are usually accounted for by safety factors. This approach often yields overly conservative designs, thereby reducing the potential of many advanced composite materials.