Fluctuations in Conjunction Miss Distance Projections as Time Approaches Time of Closest Approach

A responsibility of the Trajectory Operations Officer is to ensure that the International Space Station (ISS) avoids colliding with debris. United States Space Command (USSPACECOM) tracks and catalogs a portion of the debris in Earth orbit, but only objects with a perigee less than 600 km and a radar cross section (RCS) greater than 10 cm-objects that, in fact, represent only a small fraction of the objects in Earth orbit. To accommodate for this, the ISS uses shielding to protect against collisions with smaller objects. This study provides a better understanding of how quickly, and to what degree, USSPACECOM projections tend to converge to the final, true miss distance. The information included is formulated to better predict the behavior of miss distance data during real-time operations. It was determined that the driving components, in order of impact on miss distance fluctuations, are energy dissipation rate (EDR), RCS, and inclination. Data used in this analysis, calculations made, and conclusions drawn are stored in Microsoft Excel log sheets. A separate log sheet, created for each conjunction, contains information such as predicted miss distances, apogee and perigee of debris orbit, EDR, RCS, inclination, tracks and observations, statistical data, and other evaluation/orbital parameters.