Analysis of Rapidly Developing Low Cloud Ceilings in a Stable Environment

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in developing a database of days that experienced rapid (< 90 minutes) low cloud formation in a stable atmosphere, resulting in ceilings at the Shuttle Landing Facility (TTS) that violated Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR). The meteorological conditions favoring the rapid formation of low ceilings include the presence of any inversion below 8000 ft, high relative humidity beneath the inversion, and a clockwise turning of the winds from the surface to the middle troposphere (approx. 15000 ft). The AMU compared and contrasted the atmospheric and thermodynamic conditions between days with rapid low ceiling formation and days with low ceiling resulting from other mechanism. The AMU found that the vertical wind profile is the probable discerning factor between the rapidly-forming ceiling days and other low ceiling days at TTS. Most rapidly-developing low ceiling days had a clockwise turning of the winds with height, whereas other low ceiling days typically had a counter-clockwise turning of the winds with height or negligible vertical wind shear. Forecasters at the Space Meteorology Group (SMG) issue 30 to 90 minute forecasts for low cloud ceilings at TTS to support Space Shuttle landings. Mission verification statistics have shown ceilings to be the number one forecast challenge. More specifically, forecasters at SMG are concerned with any rapidly developing clouds ceilings below 8000 ft in a stable, capped thermodynamic environment, Therefore, the AMU was tasked to examine archived events of rapid stable cloud formation resulting in ceilings below 8000 ft, and document the atmospheric regimes favoring this type of cloud development. The AMU examined the cool season months of November to March during the years of 1993-2003 for days that had low-level inversions and rapid, stable low cloud formation that resulted in ceilings violating the Space Shuttle FR. The AMU wrote and modified existing code to identify inversions from the morning Cape Canaveral, FL rawinsonde (XMR) during the cool season and output pertinent sounding information. They parsed all days with cloud ceilings below 8000 ft at TTS, forming a database of possible rapidly-developing low ceiling events. Days with precipitation or noticeable fog bum-off situations were excluded from the database. Only the daytime hours were examined for possible ceiling development events since low clouds are easier to diagnose with visible satellite imagery. Follow-on work would expand the database to include nighttime cases, using a special enhancement of the infrared imagery for identifying areas of low clouds. The report presents two sample cases of rapidly-developing low cloud ceilings. These cases depict the representative meteorological and thermodynamic characteristics of such events. The cases also illustrate how quickly the cloud decks can develop, sometimes forming in 30 minutes or less. The report also summarizes the composite meteorological conditions for 20 event days with rapid low cloud ceiling formation and 48 non-events days consisting of advection or widespread low cloud ceilings. The meteorological conditions were quite similar for both the event and non-event days, since both types of days experienced low cloud ceilings. Both types of days had a relatively moist environment beneath the inversion based below 8000 ft. In the 20 events identified, de onset of low ceilings occurred between 1200-1800 UTC in every instance. The distinguishing factor between the event and non-event days appears to be the vertical wind profile in the XMR sounding. Eighty-five percent of the event days had a clockwise turning of the winds with height in the lower to middle troposphere whereas 83% of the non-events had a counter-clockwise turning of the winds with height or negligible vertical wind shear. A clockwise turning of the winds with height indicates a warm advection regime, which supports large-scale rising motn and possible cloud formation. Meanwhile, a counter-clockwise turning of the winds with height indicates cold advection or sinking motion in a post-cold frontal environment.