Technology Assessment Requirements for Programs and Projects

Program/project uncertainty can most simply be defined as the unpredictability of its outcome. As might be expected, the degree of uncertainty depends substantially on program/project type. For hi-tech programs/projects, uncertainty all too frequently translates into schedule slips, cost overruns and occasionally even to cancellations or failures - consummations root cause of such events is often attributed to inadequate definition of requirements. If such were indeed the root cause, then correcting the situation would simply be a matter of requiring better requirements definition, but since history seems frequently to repeat itself, this must not be the case - at least not in total. There are in fact many contributors to schedule slips, cost overruns, project cancellations and failures, among them lack of adequate requirements definition. The case can be made, however, that many of these contributors are related to the degree of uncertainty at the outset of the project. And further, that a dominant factor in the degree of uncertainty is the maturity of the technology required to bring the project to fruition. This presentation discusses the concept of relating degrees of uncertainty to Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) and their associated Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2) levels. It also briefly describes a quantifiable process to establish the appropriate TRL for a given technology and quantifies through the AD2 what is required to move it from its current TRL to the desired TRL in order to reduce risk and maximize likelihood of successfully infusing the technology.