Inside the Mechanics of Network Development: How Competition and Strategy Reorganize European Air Traffic

Air transport forms complex networks that can be measured in order to understand its structural characteristics and functional properties. Recent models for network growth (i.e., preferential attachment, etc.) remain stochastic and do not seek to understand other network-specific mechanisms that may account for their development in a more microscopic way. Air traffic is made up of many constituent airlines that are either privately or publicly owned and that operate their own networks. They follow more or less similar business policies each. The way these airline networks organize among themselves into distinct traffic distributions reveals complex interaction among them, which in turn can be aggregated into larger (macro-) traffic distributions. Our approach allows for a more deterministic methodology that will assess the impact of airline strategies on the distinct distributions for air traffic, particularly inside Europe. One key question this paper is seeking to answer is whether there are distinct patterns of preferential attachment for given classes of airline networks to distinct types of European airports. Conclusions about the advancing degree of concentration in this industry and the airline operators that accelerate this process can be drawn.