Mapping of Technological Opportunities-Labyrinth Seal Example

All technological systems evolve based on evolutionary sequences that have repeated throughout history and can be abstracted from the history of technology and patents. These evolutionary sequences represent objective patterns and provide considerable insights that can be used to proactively model future seal concepts. This presentation provides an overview of how to map seal technology into the future using a labyrinth seal example. The mapping process delivers functional descriptions of sequential changes in market/consumer demand, from today s current paradigm to the next major paradigm shift. The future paradigm is developed according to a simple formula: the future paradigm is free of all flaws associated with the current paradigm; it is as far into the future as we can see. Although revolutionary, the vision of the future paradigm is typically not immediately or completely realizable nor is it normally seen as practical. There are several reasons that prevent immediate and complete practical application, such as: 1) Some of the required technological or business resources and knowledge not being available; 2) Availability of other technological or business resources are limited; and/or 3) Some necessary knowledge has not been completely developed. These factors tend to drive the Total Cost of Ownership or Utilization out of an acceptable range and revealing the reasons for the high Total Cost of Ownership or Utilization which provides a clear understanding of research opportunities essential for future developments and defines the current limits of the immediately achievable improvements. The typical roots of high Total Cost of Ownership or Utilization lie in the limited availability or even the absence of essential resources and knowledge necessary for its realization. In order to overcome this obstacle, step-by-step modification of the current paradigm is pursued to evolve from the current situation toward the ideal future, i.e., evolution rather than revolution. A key point is that evolutionary stages are mapped to show step-by-step evolution from the current paradigm to the next major paradigm.