Autonomous Aerobraking Using Thermal Response Surface Analysis

Aerobraking is a proven method of significantly increasing the science payload that can be placed into low Mars orbits when compared to an all propulsive capture. However, the aerobraking phase is long and has mission cost and risk implications. The main cost benefit is that aerobraking permits the use of a smaller and cheaper launch vehicle, but additional operational costs are incurred during the long aerobraking phase. Risk is increased due to the repeated thermal loading of spacecraft components and the multiple attitude and propulsive maneuvers required for successful aerobraking. Both the cost and risk burdens can be significantly reduced by automating the aerobraking operations phase. All of the previous Mars orbiter missions that have utilized aerobraking have increasingly relied on onboard calculations during aerobraking. Even though the temperature of spacecraft components has been the limiting factor, operational methods have relied on using a surrogate variable for mission control. This paper describes several methods, based directly on spacecraft component maximum temperature, for autonomously predicting the subsequent aerobraking orbits and prescribing apoapsis propulsive maneuvers to maintain the spacecraft within specified temperature limits. Specifically, this paper describes the use of thermal response surface analysis in predicting the temperature of the spacecraft components and the corresponding uncertainty in this temperature prediction.