Equatorial Annual Oscillation with QBO-driven 5-year Modulation in NCEP Data

An analysis is presented of the zonal wind and temperature variations supplied by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which have been assimilated in the Reanalysis and the Climate Prediction Center (CCP) data sets. The derived zonal-mean variations are employed. Stimulated by modeling studies, the data are separated into the hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric components, and spectral analysis is applied to study the annual 12-month oscillation and Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO). For data samples that cover as much as 40 years, the results reveal a pronounced 5-year modulation of the symmetric AO in the lower stratosphere, which is confined to equatorial latitudes. This modulation is also inferred for the temperature variations but extends to high latitudes, qualitatively consistent with published model results. A comparison between different data samples indicates that the signature of the 5-year oscillation is larger when the QBO of 30 months is more pronounced. Thus there is circumstantial evidence that this periodicity of the QBO is involved in generating the oscillation. The spectral analysis shows that there is a weak anti-symmetric 5-year oscillation in the zonal winds, which could interact with the large antisymmetric A0 to produce the modulation of the symmetric AO as was shown in earlier modeling studies. According to these studies, the 30-month QBO tends to be synchronized by the equatorial Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO), and this would explain why the inferred 5-year modulation is observed to persist and is phase locked over several cycles.